The debate between geographical determinism versus cultural humanist flares up again in this debate of what makes a nation successful. Kaplan’s entry into this debate is laudable albeit favors too heavily on the side of geographist.
My key takeaway is that Europe, Russia, China, India, Iran, and Turkey are all heirs to great empires and cultures made so by their geographical fortune, and they will be forever part of the geo-political landscape. On the other hand, there are nation with huge geographical bounty waiting for them in the future, such as the US and Saudi Arabia. It is impossible for realpolitik to disregard these nations. Ignore them at your own peril.