If you are confused about 2017 election, of why something that is not likely to happen actually happening, it is interesting to re-read this book. Nate Silver gets a a lot of blame for first giving Donald Trump 33 percent chance of winning and then failing to predict DT’s winning. But that’s not true, that’s just a bad understanding of statistic. 33 percent chance of winning doesn’t mean that Clinton has a lead of 30 percentage points but that if the election is being played out a hundred-time, DT will win 33 times. This is the premise of this book; statistic is weird.
That being said, it is interesting to talk about how quotative data can fail us.... See More